April 20, 2012

Position Changes: None. 

Major movements (+ or - one point or more among holdings): Harley Davidson +2.13.

Basic Summary (positions itemized after daily commentary)

Relative performance (marked to market) vs. S&P 500 since initiation

This Portfolio Model   + 215%

S&P 500                + 165%

Portfolio model initiated 5/5/95, archived and marked to market daily.

Initial S&P 500 level 520.12, Initial portfolio value $520,120.00.

Current portfolio value $1,642,184.53, gain 215.73% 

These results are reflective as to capital capture and market price of current holdings, itemized below.  They do not include cash dividends, interest earned on cash balances, transaction costs, or anything else. 

Current Stock vs. Cash Allocation

$1,060,757.37 (64%) stock. $581,427.16 (36%) cash equivalents. 

Summary of Closed Positions

Total Positions  459                     Average Position

      Profit     413  (89.97%)       Percentage   +  7.19%

      Loss        46  (10.03%)           Days Held    220

      Even         0  ( 0%)           Annualized  + 11.93% 

The week concluded with a negative session for the Nasdaq Composite

(-7.11), but positive for this portfolio model, broadly based measures, and the two most popular averages (Dow Industrial +65.16, S&P 500 +1.61). 

After an extended period of near term below average volatility, over the past three weeks there has been a return to above average daily volatility. 

Usually, these volatility changes are accompanied by high probability near term price shifts.  This time, directional probabilities have gyrated, but not quite making it to levels justifying major position shifts. 

This data always develops and can move to high levels quickly.  No indication to do anything when trading resumes Monday, but next week’s Federal Reserve comments or long list of earnings announcements could be the trigger for up to three position changes. Soon find out.