April 17, 2012

Position Changes: None. 

Major movements (+ or - one point or more among holdings): CH Robinson +1.30, Harley Davidson +1.36, Imperial Oil +1.27, 3M +1.05, United Technologies +1.36, Walgreen +1.77.

Basic Summary (positions itemized after daily commentary)

Relative performance (marked to market) vs. S&P 500 since initiation

This Portfolio Model   + 216%

S&P 500                + 167%

Portfolio model initiated 5/5/95, archived and marked to market daily.

Initial S&P 500 level 520.12, Initial portfolio value $520,120.00.

Current portfolio value $1,643,831.43, gain 216.05% 

These results are reflective as to capital capture and market price of current holdings, itemized below.  They do not include cash dividends, interest earned on cash balances, transaction costs, or anything else. 

Current Stock vs. Cash Allocation

$1,062,404.27 (64%) stock. $581,427.16 (36%) cash equivalents. 

Summary of Closed Positions

Total Positions  459                     Average Position

      Profit     413  (89.97%)       Percentage   +  7.19%

      Loss        46  (10.03%)           Days Held    220

      Even         0  ( 0%)           Annualized  + 11.93% 

Nice day; exceptionally strong for this portfolio model, the most popular averages (Dow Industrial +194.13, S&P 500 +21.21, Nasdaq Composite +54.42)and broadly based measures. 

Technically, as important as today’s gain is that it provided clear demonstration of sudden above average volatility without a proportionate “surprise” fundamental event. 

As we have mentioned in recent commentary, this type of movement is normal at this juncture of the underlying long term market cycle.  The Dow is now +6,568 (100%) points above the cyclical low set in March 2009. 

Albeit dramatic, today’s activity had little effect on the underlying statistical condition.  It did negate high probabilities of changing (net buying or selling) positions tomorrow (Wednesday), but some changes later this week are likely.